🏛️ The Masters' Exam

Every legendary trading rule you have ever been sold, from Wyckoff in the 1930s to the Turtles to the most-cited paper in academic finance, retested two ways: against 185,650 historical trades built without hindsight, and every single night against our own live plan book. You see what holds up now, not what worked in a book. Simulated research, never advice.

We ran our own champion strategy through the same exam. It failed. We published that too.

Our best combination (3-to-1 payoffs + room to the next ceiling) showed +0.47% per trade on 893 unseen trades. Then we rebuilt the entire history with zero hindsight and walls that drop every trade straddling a boundary. The edge fell to +0.14% per trade: real, but a third of what the flattering version promised. 2 strategies held the title on the old data. On clean data: zero. Most services would have shipped the first number. The whole point of this machine is that it will not let us.

Principles under test

Wyckoff 1930s to academia 1993

Historical trades

185,650

1540 symbols · 54 years · zero hindsight

Retested

nightly

against plans frozen before their outcomes

Champions surviving clean data

and we said so out loud

WORKING NOW Momentum masters: buy strength (6mo leaders) +1.98%

Minervini/O'Neil screening doctrine

6-month return >= 30% names out-earn the rest (the Atlas anti-chase check, restated as the masters would).

now (live book, last 90 days): +1.98% per trade with it vs without · 3890 plans · 54-year record, context only: +0.95% per trade across 21,895 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

WORKING NOW Minervini: VCP (volatility contraction) +1.21%

Mark Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard

ATR contraction (<0.85 vs 40 bars ago) before the signal improves outcomes.

now (live book, last 90 days): +1.21% per trade with it vs without · 633 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.13% per trade across 49,675 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

WORKING NOW Morales/Kacher: pocket pivots +1.15%

Gil Morales & Chris Kacher, Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple

A signal-day UP bar whose volume exceeds every down-day volume of the prior 10 sessions marks institutional buying.

now (live book, last 90 days): +1.15% per trade with it vs without · 59 plans · 54-year record, context only: +0.96% per trade across 32,199 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

WORKING NOW O'Neil: demand volume confirmation +1.10%

O'Neil / IBD doctrine

Signal-day relative volume >= 1.4x improves outcomes.

now (live book, last 90 days): +1.10% per trade with it vs without · 69 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.19% per trade across 36,835 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

COLLECTING Zweig: don't fight the tape

Marty Zweig, Winning on Wall Street

Entries outside Risk-off regimes out-earn Risk-off entries (in-group = favorable tape).

54-year record, context only: +1.17% per trade across 173,795 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

DEAD NOW Wyckoff: springs mark absorbed supply -0.29%

Richard Wyckoff method (spring/test, bar-proxy)

An undercut of the prior 20-bar low within the last 10 sessions that CLOSED back above it (spring) marks tested-and-absorbed supply; entries with a recent spring out-earn those without.

now (live book, last 90 days): -0.29% per trade with it vs without · 711 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.19% per trade across 37,335 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

DEAD NOW Turtles: 20-day Donchian breakout -0.30%

Richard Dennis / Curtis Faith, Turtle System 1

A signal-day close through the prior 20-day high out-earns entries that lack the channel break.

now (live book, last 90 days): -0.30% per trade with it vs without · 335 plans · 54-year record, context only: +0.85% per trade across 29,256 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

DEAD NOW Faber: only buy above the 10-month line -0.45%

Mebane Faber, A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation

Entries taken while SPY holds above its 10-month SMA out-earn entries taken below it.

now (live book, last 90 days): -0.45% per trade with it vs without · 2692 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.09% per trade across 126,339 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

DEAD NOW Seykota/trend: trade with the alignment -0.82%

Ed Seykota (Market Wizards)

All MAs aligned 20>50>200 at entry beats fighting the trend.

now (live book, last 90 days): -0.82% per trade with it vs without · 2089 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.12% per trade across 81,021 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

DEAD NOW PTJ: demand asymmetry (high planned R:R) -1.09%

Paul Tudor Jones (Market Wizards)

Plans with planned R:R >= 3 out-earn lower-asymmetry plans.

now (live book, last 90 days): -1.09% per trade with it vs without · 1268 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.21% per trade across 72,646 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

DEAD NOW O'Neil: cut losses 7-8% (tight stops) -1.16%

O'Neil, CANSLIM rule 1

Plans with stop width <= 8% out-earn wider-stop plans (R-normalized AND percent terms both reported).

now (live book, last 90 days): -1.16% per trade with it vs without · 3643 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.04% per trade across 153,723 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

DEAD NOW Jegadeesh-Titman: 12-1 momentum -1.31%

Jegadeesh & Titman (1993), Returns to Buying Winners...

12-month return SKIPPING the most recent month >= 30% (the academic momentum-winners cohort, short-term reversal excluded).

now (live book, last 90 days): -1.31% per trade with it vs without · 959 plans · 54-year record, context only: +0.81% per trade across 48,488 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

DEAD NOW Weinstein: only buy Stage 2 -1.32%

Stan Weinstein, Secrets For Profiting (1988)

Proxy: price above a rising long base = above 200d MA with MAs aligned 20>50>200. Claim: stage-2 entries out-earn everything else.

now (live book, last 90 days): -1.32% per trade with it vs without · 2091 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.11% per trade across 80,836 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

DEAD NOW Minervini: the FULL Trend Template -1.67%

Mark Minervini, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (50/200-leg proxy)

All template legs at once (price>50MA>200MA, rising 200MA, >=30% above the 52w low, within 25% of the 52w high, RS positive vs SPY) out-earn partial alignment.

now (live book, last 90 days): -1.67% per trade with it vs without · 590 plans · 54-year record, context only: +0.88% per trade across 38,824 trades · MIXED (unstable in regime)

DEAD NOW O'Neil: buy near 52-week highs -2.00%

William O'Neil, How to Make Money in Stocks

Entries within 10% of the 52w high out-earn deeper ones.

now (live book, last 90 days): -2.00% per trade with it vs without · 2008 plans · 54-year record, context only: +1.01% per trade across 101,205 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

UNDER NIGHTLY WATCH Darvas: boxes near highs

Nicolas Darvas, How I Made $2M

Contraction AND within 10% of 52w high together (the box at highs).

54-year record, context only: +0.99% per trade across 51,729 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

UNDER NIGHTLY WATCH Turtles: 55-day Donchian breakout

Turtle System 2 (the longer, rarer breakout)

A close through the prior 55-day high marks the strongest trends.

54-year record, context only: +0.71% per trade across 15,068 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

UNDER NIGHTLY WATCH Connors: buy the RSI-2 dip

Larry Connors & Cesar Alvarez, Short Term Trading Strategies That Work (2008)

A 2-period RSI at or under 10 (deeply oversold for two days) marks the mean-reversion entry - the counter-thesis to breakout doctrine.

54-year record, context only: +1.35% per trade across 14,577 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

UNDER NIGHTLY WATCH Wilder: only trade when the trend has teeth

J. Welles Wilder, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978)

ADX(14) at or above 25 marks real directional force; entries in strong trends out-earn entries in chop.

54-year record, context only: +1.24% per trade across 59,719 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade)

UNDER NIGHTLY WATCH Shannon: respect the anchored VWAP

Brian Shannon, Maximum Trading Gains with Anchored VWAP (2023)

Price above the volume-weighted average price anchored at the 52-week low means the average buyer since the bottom is in profit; those entries out-earn entries below the line.

54-year record, context only: +1.11% per trade across 172,006 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

UNDER NIGHTLY WATCH Zweig: the breadth thrust window

Martin Zweig, Winning on Wall Street (1986); breadth thrust as formalized on 10-day advance ratio

Entries inside 20 sessions of a Zweig Breadth Thrust (10-day advance ratio crossing 0.40 to 0.615 within 10 sessions) out-earn the rest.

54-year record, context only: +1.73% per trade across 18,620 trades · MIXED (unstable in decade,regime)

How the grading works

Every plan our scanner publishes is frozen the moment it is born. Its outcome arrives later, in real market time, and no one can retouch it. The historical corpus is rebuilt with zero lookahead and purged walk-forward walls. When a legend's rule stops working, this page says so before we do.

See the live board members watch every day

Updated 2026-08-26 · Simulated research, never advice · past results never guarantee anything, which is rather the point of this page.